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Every five years the Forest Resources performs an intensive analysis of
the Province’s wood supply to arrive at the next set of Annual Allowable Cuts
(AAC’s) for each Ecosystem Management District. Integral to the Department’s
twenty year forest management plan, the wood supply analysis ensures that the
harvesting of our Province’s forests is sustainable. Over the past two years,
DFRA staff have been dedicated to ensuring that the information
going into the current analysis is accurate, recent and most importantly
realistic. Not to be taken lightly, this process is complicated and involves
numerous inputs. Some of the more crucial include:
Updated Inventory Information
This would include all the latest
cutover information, any large disturbances (fire/insects/blowdown), all new road
construction, all silvicultural activities (plantings and thinnings), and any new
stand typing information.
Land Base Review
This involves a detailed review of all productive forest
maps by each District Manager. Areas deemed harvestable are identified as Land
Class I and will be the basis for the timber supply analysis. Land Class III
areas out of the analysis and consist of parks & reserves, water buffers (20
m minimum, larger on some water bodies), steep areas as well as any other area
of particular concern.
Yield Curve Development
Basically, this involves reviewing all growth
information established from various inventory plots to try and predict how fast
a stand will grow and how much volume it will produce. This information is fed
into computer models which produce a yield curve for each commercial species on
various sites types (good, medium and poor). Measurements are then done in the
field to verify the yield curves.
Regeneration Updates & Assumptions
How fast areas respond after harvesting and what type of
species will dominate the future forest are assumptions required for the timber
supply analysis. Areas of the province respond differently and a set of base
rules must be determined. Past practices and the experience of the District
Managers were drawn upon to determine this.
Consumption Analysis
Perhaps the most important part of the entire analysis
is an examination of the demand for wood within the Province. Here, efforts are
spent on trying to verify the amount of wood being consumed by the pulp and
paper and sawmill industries. At first glance this may seem a simply enough
process, however the tracking of wood is a complex issue and must be carefully
analyzed.
Computer Modelling & Spatial Analysis
Once all the inputs and assumptions are verified, the
information is fed through the Department’s computer model (Woodstock) which
calculates the optimal AAC for each management district by ownership. A number
of runs are performed to determine the sensitivity of various inputs. A spatial
analysis is also done to develop harvesting schedules (where and when wood can
be cut).
Gross Merchantable Volume Deductions
The final step in the process is to apply deductions to
the calculated AAC which represent volume depletions outside of normal
harvesting practices. This includes volume loss as a result of fires, insect
infestations, stand remnants and timber utilization (inherent cull and solid
merchantable wood). Basically an attempt is made to predict how much volume will
be lost annually due to these factors over the next five year period. Empirical
evidence forms the basis for this analysis.
In effect the wood supply analysis brings together all
aspect of forest management. It sheds light on why particular surveys are
completed, why accurate records are important and how everyone has direct input
into the final numbers. Quite often field staff are left wondering the purpose
behind some of their job duties. Hopefully this abbreviated explanation has made
this somewhat clearer.
2002 Wood Supply Figures
Current AAC figures for the Island portion
of the Province follow in tabular form. Figures for Labrador are currently in preparation.
| 2002 Wood Supply Figures |
| District |
Tenure |
2002 AAC's |
| Base |
Partition |
Total |
1
2
5
7
8
Central
9
14
15
16
17
18
Western |
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown
Crown |
55,500
71,000
30,900
23,500
62,100
243,000
32,100
38,600
23,700
12,200
44,900
89,700
241,200 |
0
4,000
5,400
0
10,100
19,500
8,100
8,300
2,100
2,700
3,600
4,900
29,700 |
55,500
75,000
36,300
23,500
72,200
262,500
40,200
46,900
25,800
14,900
48,500
94,600
270,900 |
4
5
6
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
16 |
ACI
ACI
ACI
ACI
ACI
ACI
ACI
ACI
ACI
ACI
ACI |
44,500
15,600
6,900
2,400
13,000
69,000
138,000
176,000
32,100
12,400
17,300 |
6,100
2,800
900
400
4,300
15,000
24,000
15,000
4,300
1,800
100 |
50,600
18,400
7,800
2,800
17,300
84,000
162,000
191,000
36,400
14,200
17,400 |
5
6
8
9
14
15
16
17 |
CBPP
CBPP
CBPP
CBPP
CBPP
CBPP
CBPP
CBPP |
39,200
79,000
15,400
123,000
57,000
266,000
155,000
51,500 |
6,900
17,000
2,600
25,000
10,900
14,000
0
7,000 |
46,100
96,000
18,000
148,000
67,900
280,000
155,000
58,500 |
Total
Total
Total |
Crown
ACI
CBPP |
484,200
527,200
786,100 |
49,200
74,700
83,400 |
533,400
601,900
869,500 |
| Total |
Island |
1,797,500 |
207,300 |
2,004,800 |
Partition - refers to wood in
smaller blocks which may not be economic to harvest.
ACI - Abitibi Consolidated Incorporated
CBPP - Corner Brook Pulp and Paper |
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